The recession came fast, hit hard, and then strolled away slowly.
That’s the verdict of a new report by the Conference Board of Canada and the Business Development Bank, which tracked six key industries this year, predicting some will see profits drop by as much as a third by year’s end.
“Despite a tough 2009, most of the economy came through this recession in fairly good shape because the domestic economy was in pretty good shape going into it,” said Michael Burt, associate director of the Conference Board of Canada.
Among the industries most hurt this year were restaurants and bars, especially full-service restaurants, which will see profits decline by 31.7% in 2009 the report predicts.
But just because the restaurants were a third empty didn’t mean people stopped eating, with profits at grocery and other food stores up in 2009 by a modest 1.8% as people entertained at home.
Outside of food stores, however, the economy took a big hit. Transportation and warehousing of goods dropped by 28.7% as people curtailed their travelling and business cut back on inventory.
Profits for the retail sales sector will have plunged by as much as 32% by years end with auto sales leading the overall decline. The report says many shops managed to survive this year by having sales and cutting overall prices.
“Last Christmas was obviously not a happy time for retailers given the fact the crisis hit in October, right before the holidays but this year we’re seeing an improvement in consumer confidence,” said Burt.
Profits for the wholesale trade sector are expected contract by 23.1% this year and the accommodation industry will have lost 7.6% of its profits but that adds to a 24.9% profit contraction for the hotel industry in 2008, a year where all other sectors grew.
peter.zimonjic@sumedia.ca