 Governor General Michaelle Jean, second left, Czech President Vaclav Klaus, second right, Jean's husband Daniel Lafond Jean, left, and Klaus' wife Livia Klausova, right, review the honour guard in Prague on Monday. THE ASSOCIATED PRESS/CTK, Stanislav Zbynek
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OTTAWA — Gov. Gen. Michaelle Jean flies home today from a peaceful, official European trip to an all-out political brawl in which she might soon be deciding the victor.
What faces the 51-year-old head of state, appointed in 2005, is the possibility Prime Minister Stephen Harper, facing a confidence vote Monday he would likely lose, is expected to ask her to suspend — or prorogue — Parliament until January.
The potentially fatal alternative for the minority Conservatives is to face Monday’s vote and suffer defeat, leaving Jean to consider whether to dissolve Parliament and trigger an election.
A defeat could mean she would ask the Opposition to form a government without an election — a real possibility now that the three opposition parties have a deal to govern as an alliance until at least June 2010.
Uncharted territory
Experts call it uncharted territory. "It’s one for the history books, no doubt," said political historian David Mitchell, soon to head the Ottawa-based Public Policy Forum.
"It’s going to be an awful steep learning curve for her," added eminent constitutional expert Ned Franks.
Jean’s relative lack of experience compared to her predecessors will make the challenge that much more difficult, said Queen’s University political scientist Kathy Brock.
"Traditionally in Canada, we’ve had a governor general who is more experienced, someone who is very grounded in the political system and who can look at experts and argue back with them.
"If you had an elder statesperson in the position, the decision would have more resonance, more credibility."
Is Jean up to the task?
Yes, said Mitchell. "She’s grown in the job. I believe that Canadians must trust that she will make an informed decision based upon the best advice she will receive."
Call on advice
Further, Jean has been in office only during minority parliaments so "I would suspect the governor general has thought about these matters," said David Smith, professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan.
Traditionally, the governor general can call on whomever she wishes for advice, from constitutional experts to veteran political observers.
A key person to talk to is Adrienne Clarkson "who faced this very same problem," said Franks. During her time as governor general, the Paul Martin government faced the prospect of defeat over its throne speech. It ultimately survived.
On arriving back in Ottawa, Jean will wait for the prime minister to approach her. Constitutionally, "she depends on that individual for advice," said Smith. She will likely go along with Harper's move to prorogue, and is unlikely to speak to opposition politicians until after a confidence vote in the House.
If she accepts a proposed Liberal-NDP coalition as a possible new government, it will be the first change of government without an election since 1926.
