Odds of seeing pigs fly during an all-weekend rock concert -- pretty good.
Odds of seeing the Loch Ness monster today at the start of a two-day music bash on the shores of Scotland's most infamous body of water -- U.K. bookies put it at 250 to 1.
As thousands gather today at Loch Ness for loud and crowded "Rockness," many spectators will be handed instant cameras in the hopes someone will grab a picture of the loch's celebrated water horse. The free disposables are being supplied by British bookmakers, who have offered up a $2.1 million Cdn reward for anyone who can prove Nessie really does exist.
Just two weeks ago, more than a few would have put down good money on a bet that Gordon Holmes had come pretty close. The amateur scientist made headlines around the globe, after filming what was touted as some of the best images ever captured of the Highland's most reclusive old-timer.
Today, the Nessie expert who gave early weight to that claim admits some reservations. Veteran marine biologist Adrian Shine -- of the Loch Ness 2000 centre in Drumnadrochit, on the shores of the waterway -- now theorizes the ripples in the water may have started in the heavens, rather than in the deep water.
After more than 35 years probing Loch Ness -- a skeptical interpreter of what happens in the dark depths -- Shine is considered the ultimate voice on quiet Nessie.
Given the fact the latest video had some reference points on land and was clearer than many previous images, Shine was originally excited about the find -- and still is, but for reasons other than the monster.
Holmes filmed it on May 26, as he was reportedly studying underwater noises. He says he doesn't know what it is, but that it's jet black and about 15 metres long.
"I couldn't believe my eyes," the 55-year-old U.K. man told the press after he brought the footage to Shine to review through his camera's viewfinder.
Because Holmes panned back while filming, the geographical bearings initially allowed experts to calculate how big the creature was and how fast it was travelling. But Shine has started to take an even closer look, and has discovered something odd -- beyond the fact it could be video of a mythical beast.
LEGEND RUNS DEEP
For a moment, Shine hesitates when giving his opinion, worried that he hasn't even yet shared it with Holmes -- who did not respond to a request for an interview.
Shine says there is a lack of a second line in the wake moving out from behind the object. Usually an enlarging V, there appears to be only a single wave in Holmes' video. This has Shine considering that what may appear on the surface of the water is a trick of unusual local winds -- a meteorological play between breeze and water.
"I'm no longer sure it's an animal swimming," he tells Sun Media from his office, at one end of Loch Ness.
"What I'm failing to see is that second arm of the wake."
Local hills often give birth to odd wind currents, and he's seen waves moving against the flow of air.
And if it is something living, there's always the possibility it could be a seal that's made its way into the loch, he adds. He wants to mull over the images even more -- he's been busy trying to help a bid to have the area given world heritage status -- but says even if the film shows a play in the wind, it's proof that Loch Ness is full of unusual sights.
The legend of the Loch Ness monster runs as deep as the lake itself -- a mammoth body, deeper than the North Sea. It could, they say, easily cradle the world's population, and have space to spare.
The first sighting dates back to AD 565, by one of the founders of the Christian church in Scotland, St. Columba. But its modern reign as the world's most fantastic phantom -- sharing the title with various forms of Bigfoot -- began in the 1930s. Every year, a million tourists visit the area, hoping to catch sight of Nessie, which could live 230 metres below the surface.
Rory Cameron's grandfather was one of the lucky ones. The older man, almost half a century ago, spent 50 minutes watching something unusual swim in the lake -- the longest recorded sighting.
"There's something there, but I don't think it'll ever be solved just what it is," says Rory, who owns the Loch Ness Clansman Hotel, on the waterway.
Shine says people often see what they're looking for.
"They're interpreting things they expect to see -- there's not enough brain to go around, so they see (the monster)," he's come to believe.
"The fact is there is not just one explanation to go around for all the sightings."
Even boat wakes can take on a life of their own.
"I think some of those sightings are from unusual creatures, but not too many years ago we didn't know seals could get in there," Shine points out.
He has a theory that historical sightings may have simply been large sturgeons -- one of the oldest genera of fish in existence -- which found themselves in Loch Ness.
To a local, familiar with normal loch creatures, a huge sturgeon would have seemed a remarkable oddity.
Not that there might not be a breed of critter who will one day rise up to shock us all.
"I'm still open-minded," says Shine of the myth. "I don't believe in the Loch Ness (monster) ... yet."
The next time someone does get another picture or video of Nessie, it'll be Shine who will likely see it first.
Which may explain his reaction when told thousands of rock fans are being handed free cameras to try to photograph the monster. Anticipating having to pour over booze-fueled images of everything from floating logs to some guy's "dobber" -- the local slang -- Shine lets out a monster groan.
"I live in dread," says Nessie's guardian.
