HAVANA -- Sun columnist Joe Warmington has just returned from Cuba where he took the pulse of the nation. This is his report on a country holding its breath:
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Is Fidel Castro already dead?
The official government line -- which many Cubans believe -- is that Castro is alive and slowly recovering from serious abdominal surgery. Three surgeries actually. But if he is not dead (or close to it) then why have Cuban authorities not shown him? There haven't been any new pictures or footage in months of the most photographed man in Cuba.
Today we challenge the Cuban authorities to end the mystery and confirm he is still breathing. Or admit he has passed on.
Previous shots of him in August and September showed a frail old man in such bad health that American medical experts, believing it was cancer, gave him just months to live. Then came reports from Spanish doctors that it was not cancer but bowel blockages that were complicated by a series of stubborn infections.
The current level of information -- and disinformation -- is all by classic design, a power transition plan thought out years ago and now being executed to perfection, says Cuban-born Canadian Alberto Benitez. "It's all a scheme to keep the people confused and keep their mind off the real issue, which is their lives. I do think he is dead but I am aware he could surprise us and not be. The only thing I will say is I hope he is dead and his brother, too. That's what would be best for the people." It's a harsh opinion. I don't quite hear that sentiment here but the cult of Fidel is not as vital for day-to-day living as the government insists.
"Fidel being alive or dead is not important to the people of Cuba," said a woman named Hilda. "What matters here are the people of Cuba and not the revolution."
She noted there has not been a get-well rally staged for him and she is not sure people will flock to the streets in tears upon confirmation of his death as so many believe. "Maybe, maybe not," she said.
But others say there will definitely be an outcry of emotion since he's the only "god" they have ever known. "He is such a nice man," said Rodolfo Martinez. "I wish him well."
Some warn not to underestimate him. "Fidel Castro Ruz is stronger than any person in this room and he will be back and better than ever," said one woman.
This came, however, a week after he told the press Castro was "gravely" ill.
DIRECT LINE TO CASTRO
Other times when he vouched for Castro still being alive he was with him in pictures or spoke with the president directly over the phone. This time he was talking with vice-president Carlos Lahe -- unusual since he has a direct line to Castro.
All the innuendo and speculation has created a buzz down here not seen since a time in the 1980s when he disappeared for weeks. He came back then but they are not so sure about this time.
"We haven't seen him in three months and they never, ever mention him or his health on the TV here," said Havana resident Carlos Rodriguez. "Most people here are pretty sure he's already gone and not coming back."
'POWER AND CONTROL'
Many people indicated that in this guarded communist regime it's conceivable that Castro is already dead. But they take no chances in saying so much -- just in case.
"They will try to keep (the aura of) Fidel around for as long as possible," said one source. "Power and control is the name of the game."
There are subtle clues of a change coming everywhere. One is some new billboards showing a healthy Fidel with his arm raised in the air -- as if to say he's still in control.
But another hint of what is to come can be found in some hotels where near giant framed pictures of Fidel are new ones of Raul -- the temporary president. And in Habana Vieja (Old Havana) there is a higher presence of police in the street.
Nothing much changes in Cuba. If your family was driving a 1958 Chevy in 1958, you may still be.
Meanwhile the mood is like the textbook propping-up of a tired and long entrenched dictatorship.
No one knows what the truth is. Mystery is the order of the day with most people believing the powers that be are scrambling behind the scenes to permanently install their new despot -- the brother of the old one no less.
But who really knows? That's what makes this story so intriguing and why there are so many journalists in Havana right now.
"I have been here seven weeks," said one European journalist. "And I don't talk about why I am here." Freedom of movement, opinions and expression are not established down here.
Fidel Castro's health is guarded as a state secret. And so is his whereabouts. Some say he is at his compound in Havana, some say he's at his retreat in the Sierra Maestra mountains. Others say he's in Havana's military hospital or even at a private clinic in Spain.
Wherever he is, he has people talking. Quietly.
It has been cleverly handled and stage- managed -- almost out of Moon Over Parador, a 1988 movie where actor Richard Dreyfuss stands in as a double for a deceased dictator.
This script is the perfect way to stem the tide and ensure there is no frenzy that could see Raul ousted.
It's the ideal way to absorb the reality of Fidel's death and still maintain control of a country badly in need of reforms.
"I mean he didn't give one last speech," said one man.
Could it mean he's dead? "Not even the best communists could keep a secret like that," said one expert on Cuba.
"But Joe Stalin's death was not announced for weeks," said Benitez. "If Fidel is dead this is how they would handle it. They don't want change."
But the long-suffering people do want change and hang on every clue.
In the four speeches Raul Castro has given, he has mentioned reaching out to the Americans on every occasion, something Fidel would never do. Is that another sign Fidel is dead?
